Trade deals ease risks for Indian equities, but weak demand and stretched valuations raise questions over whether optimism -- especially in smallcaps -- can turn into a sustained bull run, points out Debashis Basu.
Global risks include a potential delay in the US-India trade agreement, the possibility of a sharp correction in US equity markets, and renewed geopolitical tensions.
Analysts predict continued volatility in Indian equity markets due to domestic macroeconomic data, F&O expiry, global developments including US tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions.
'The bigger unknown remains global geopolitics, which is inherently unpredictable, including developments in our neighbourhood.' 'Another concern is the increasing tilt of government finances towards welfare subsidies, especially at the state level.' 'This could constrain capital expenditure, which is critical for long-term growth.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be major driving factors for market movement this week, analysts said. Unabated capital infusion by domestic institutional investors have supported the positive trend in the stock market last week, traders said.
Indian equity markets experienced a volatile trading day, with the Sensex and Nifty closing almost flat. Market sentiment was influenced by global cues, US-Iran talks, and profit-booking activities.
Indian equities on Dalal Street saw volatility. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for Feb 25, 2026.
Global trends, tariff-related updates and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key drivers for the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Markets witnessed a strong rebound last week, with the benchmark indices surging over 4 per cent.
Stock markets closed higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank of India kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected and proposed allowing banks to lend to Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with certain prudential safeguards to deepen the financing pool for the real estate sector.
The highlight in January, with no surprise, has been flows into gold and silver ETFs.
Benchmark Sensex tumbled 1,236 points or 1.5 per cent while Nifty closed near 25,450 on Thursday following an across-the-board sell-off amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
'The day is not too far when the share of MFs alone will be greater than that of foreign institutional investors.'
The continued MF buying has pushed the equity holding of MFs to over Rs 50 trillion for the first time.
Ambareesh Baliga's quick take on the markets after the increase in STT on futures and options trading...
The post-Covid euphoria surrounding direct equity investing has ebbed in 2025. Individual investors have turned net sellers in the domestic equity market, pulling out about 8,461 crore so far this year - a sharp reversal from the record purchases seen in 2024, according to a report by the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE).
2025 marked a shift in investor preference when it comes to MF schemes.
Inflation data, trading activity of foreign investors and global trends would dictate sentiment in the stock market this week, according to analysts.
Foreign investors fled Indian equities in 2025 at a scale never seen before, pulling out a record Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 18 billion) as volatile currency movements, global trade tensions, especially potential US tariffs, and stretched valuations eroded risk appetite, though flows are expected to turn sustainably positive in 2026.
A host of macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would dictate investors' sentiment in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, auto sales data will be closely tracked, experts noted.
'People become guided by emotions, fear of missing out, and greed. They tend to invest in booming sectors that may prove exceptionally expensive.' 'Typically, that represents the peak, and subsequently, they lose substantially.'
Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and HDFC Bank were also among the gainers. In contrast, Eternal, Asian Paints, Bharat Electronics, Sun Pharma and Maruti were among the laggards.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
The BSE Sensex plummeted 1,236 points, wiping out nearly Rs 7 lakh crore in investor wealth, driven by escalating tensions between the US and Iran and subsequent market selloff.
Indian equities on Dalal Street saw volatility as global market trends and fresh tariff concerns linked to Donald Trump impacted investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for Feb 24, 2026.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant decline, falling over 1 per cent due to foreign fund outflows and global uncertainties.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Steel tanked the most by 4.57 per cent. ICICI Bank, Power Grid, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Kotak Mahindra Bank were also among the laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, ITC and Bharat Electronics were among the gainers.
'AUM reached an all-time high of Rs 79.9 trillion in October 2025, driven by strong retail participation and record SIP inflows of Rs 29,529 crore from over 94.5 million contributing accounts.'
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Thursday, snapping a three-day rally, amid a weak trend in global stock markets.
Indian equities declined on Friday, with the benchmark Nifty posting its worst weekly fall since September, as foreign investor sentiment remained weak amid tepid earnings growth and little progress on the India-US trade front.
The number of rights issues more than doubled and hit a 28-year high in 2025, even as qualified institutional placements (QIPs) shrank amid a broader market correction and the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) revised framework for rights issues.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 17,955 crore (Rs 2 billion) from Indian equities in the first two weeks of this month, taking the total outflow to Rs 1.6 lakh crore (Rs 18.4 billion) in 2025.' This sharp withdrawal follows a net outflow of Rs 3,765 crore in November, extending the pressure on domestic equity markets.
Stock market is gearing up for an eventful week ahead where key triggers such as quarterly earnings from corporates, the US Fed interest rate decision and the upcoming Union Budget for 2026-27 would grab the limelight, analysts said.
'The problem is not just slower growth, but also the quality of growth.'
From the 30-Sensex firms, Tata Steel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Titan and Trent were among the biggest gainers. However, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Bajaj Finance and Sun Pharma, were the laggards.
A record amount of pension money may be finding its way into the stock market, if buying figures in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) data are any indication. Category inflows touched Rs 37,409 crore for the three months ending September 2025, shows an analysis of NSE data.
Foreign portfolio investors withdrew over Rs 22,530 crore ($2.5 billion) from Indian equities so far this month amid rising US bond yields and a stronger dollar, continuing their selling streak from last year. This came following an outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore ($18.9 billion) recorded in 2025, triggered by volatile currency movements, global trade tensions and concerns over potential US tariffs and stretched market valuations.
The US Fed's interest rate decision will be the major factor dictating trends in the domestic equity market this week, with global movements and foreign investor activity also influencing sentiment, according to analysts. Stock markets ended the last week on a subdued note, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closing flat.
Retail investors' equity portfolios have significantly underperformed benchmark indices over the past 16 to 18 months.
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